How many teams are in the 2026 World Cup?

48 teams compete in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, expanded from 32 in previous tournaments — the largest World Cup in football history.

How does the 2026 World Cup group stage work?

The 48 teams are drawn into 12 groups of 4 teams each (Groups A through L). Each team plays 3 matches. The top 2 from each group (24 teams) advance, plus the 8 best third-place finishers, creating a 32-team knockout bracket.

How many matches are in the 2026 World Cup?

There are 104 matches total — 72 group stage matches and 32 knockout matches (Round of 32 through the Final). The tournament runs from June 11 to July 19, 2026.

Where is the 2026 World Cup hosted?

The 2026 World Cup is co-hosted by three nations: Canada, Mexico, and the United States. There are 16 host cities across the three countries, with the final at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.

How accurate were the Bucephus World Cup 2026 forecasts?

Bucephus forecast every match of the 2026 World Cup with a Dixon-Coles and Elo model using xG, FIFA rankings, recent form and historical performance. Every forecast was recorded before kickoff and scored against the result — the full match-by-match track record, including Brier scores against the market, is published on the Bucephus accuracy page.

Books / Novels / Publishing·Active

Will China Miéville's The Rouse appear on the NYT Hardcover Fiction list within four weeks of its release?

Live62%

62%chance · Yes▲ 0

Yes62%No60%

2 outcomes · model-implied Yes chance

The line is Bucephus’s computed probability over time — aggregated from live news, social & market signals, not trading volume.

AI model estimate · awaiting news coverage & forecasts

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Probability sources

News

—

no coverage yet

Crowd

—

no forecasts yet

Model · shown

40%

AI base-rate prior

Analytics only — derived from public reporting, not betting advice. Crowd takes over once real forecasts accrue.

Market Context

what’s moving this market

Live wire

MarketFeed · real-time

Sources

1 surfed for this market

Referenced & tracked

nytimes.com · resolution

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Market Rules

Resolves Yes if Resolves YES if The Rouse charts on the NYT Hardcover Fiction list (top 15) within four weeks of its 2026 US publication, per nytimes.com/books/best-sellers.

Outcome verified from nytimes.com.

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Timeline and payout

Market open
Jul 19, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC
Market closes
Jan 1, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Projected payout
Shortly after the market closes

Insider trading is prohibited

Trading on material non-public information is prohibited. Markets are for entertainment and informational purposes using free Pulse Credits — no real-money wagering. If you believe a participant has acted on inside information, please report it.

Why 62%· Yes

This estimate is mostly the model's prior — news coverage is still thin, so few signals have pooled in yet. It sharpens as coverage builds.

Pooled estimate 62% · likely range 1–99% · How the model works ↗

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AI Analysis

Analyzing this market…

Market Stats

0 pts

Total pool

0 pts · 50%

Yes staked

0 pts · 50%

No staked

2.00 / 2.00

Implied odds

164d 4h left