Resolves Yes if Resolves Yes if the Japanese Diet passes a bill to amend Article 9 and it is approved in a national referendum by more than half of valid votes, on or before the close date.
Outcome verified from shugiin.go.jp.
Trading on material non-public information is prohibited. Markets are for entertainment and informational purposes using free Pulse Credits — no real-money wagering. If you believe a participant has acted on inside information, please report it.
Japan's constitutional amendment process requires a two-thirds Diet majority and a national referendum, a high hurdle not crossed since 1947. The LDP's push to recognize the Self-Defense Forces faces opposition from coalition partner Komeito and procedural timelines that make passage by June 2027 challenging. Public support exists but has not translated into the broad political consensus needed for both legislative and popular approval.
